Sahel Crisis Deepens as Western Influence Wanes, Forcing Canada to Reassess Regional Strategy

A profound geopolitical realignment is sweeping across Africa's Sahel region, creating a new epicentre of global instability with direct consequences for Canada. Military juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have systematically dismantled long-standing security partnerships with Western nations, most notably France and the United States, and are turning decisively toward Russia for support. This seismic shift is not merely a diplomatic shuffle; it is fueling a catastrophic security and humanitarian crisis, forcing a difficult reassessment of Canada's foreign policy, development aid, and significant commercial interests in one of the world's most volatile areas.

The Western exodus has been swift and decisive. In Mali, the junta that seized power in 2020 forced the withdrawal of France's long-running Operation Barkhane counter-terrorism force and later demanded the departure of the United Nations peacekeeping mission, MINUSMA, to which Canada had contributed a helicopter detachment in 2018-2019. A similar pattern unfolded in Burkina Faso. Most recently, the junta in Niger ordered the United States to withdraw its roughly 1,000 troops from a key drone base used for regional surveillance. This has created a security vacuum that is being eagerly filled by Russia's Africa Corps, the rebranded successor to the Wagner Group mercenary network.

For the ruling juntas, the appeal of a partnership with Moscow is clear. Russia offers military hardware, training, and regime-protection services without the human rights conditions, transparency demands, or democratic reforms insisted upon by Western partners. This no-strings-attached approach provides the juntas with the tools to consolidate power, often while stoking anti-colonial and anti-Western sentiment to bolster their domestic legitimacy. This pivot was starkly illustrated in Niger, where the junta's deepening ties with Russia have created significant risks for regional stability and undone years of Western security cooperation.

Impact on Canadian Interests

For Canada, the stakes are immense. Ottawa has long identified the Sahel as a priority region for its international assistance and diplomatic engagement. Since 2000, Canada has provided over $2.7 billion in development aid to Mali alone, focusing on health, education, and governance. This long-term investment is now in jeopardy. Operating in an environment where the ruling authorities are openly hostile to the West makes it exceedingly difficult for Global Affairs Canada and its partner NGOs to deliver aid effectively and safely. The suspension of direct development assistance to these governments means Canada must find alternative channels to support the civilian population, a task complicated by the escalating violence.

The most tangible economic impact is on Canada's globally significant mining sector. West Africa is a major gold-producing region, and Canadian companies are among the largest foreign investors. Toronto-based Barrick Gold operates the Loulo-Gounkoto complex in Mali, one of Africa's largest gold mines. Iamgold, also headquartered in Toronto, runs the Essakane mine in Burkina Faso. These operations, which employ thousands of local workers and contribute significantly to state revenues, now face a multi-faceted crisis. The security environment has deteriorated, with jihadist groups linked to al-Qaeda and ISIS controlling vast swathes of the countryside and frequently targeting mining convoys and infrastructure. Furthermore, the political risk has skyrocketed. The juntas, seeking to assert national sovereignty and generate revenue, have been revising mining codes and increasing pressure on foreign companies. The risk of contract renegotiation or outright nationalization cannot be dismissed.

The challenges facing Canadian miners in the Sahel mirror similar risks in other conflict-affected regions, such as the escalating conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where resource extraction is fraught with political and security peril. Companies must navigate a treacherous landscape, balancing shareholder responsibilities with the safety of their employees and the complex ethics of operating under authoritarian regimes backed by Russian mercenaries.

A Worsening Humanitarian Catastrophe

Far from improving security, the arrival of Russian forces and the juntas' aggressive military campaigns have led to a surge in violence against civilians. Human rights organizations have documented numerous atrocities committed by state security forces and their Russian allies during counter-insurgency operations. This brutal approach is fueling recruitment for extremist groups and deepening the humanitarian crisis. According to the United Nations, the central Sahel is home to one of the fastest-growing displacement crises in the world, with millions forced to flee their homes. Food insecurity is rampant, and basic social services have collapsed in many areas, leaving millions dependent on a shrinking pool of international aid.

This creates a profound dilemma for Canada. Continuing humanitarian support is essential to prevent mass starvation, but it risks indirectly legitimizing or propping up regimes that are actively undermining regional stability and democratic norms. The space for neutral, independent humanitarian action is rapidly closing.

A Strategic Crossroads

The transformation of the Sahel into a contiguous belt of Russian-influenced, anti-Western states from the Atlantic to the Red Sea represents a major strategic setback for Canada and its allies. It provides Moscow with a significant foothold in Africa, access to strategic resources, and a platform to challenge Western influence. For Canada, the old models of engagement—combining development aid, diplomatic support, and modest peacekeeping contributions—are no longer viable. Ottawa must now formulate a new strategy that acknowledges the changed realities on the ground. This will involve difficult decisions about whether to disengage, how to protect Canadian citizens and commercial assets, and what role, if any, Canada can play in mitigating a conflict that now sits at the heart of the global rivalry between Russia and the West.