Niger's Junta Deepens Russia Ties, Posing Risks for Canadian Aid and Regional Stability

A year after seizing power in a coup, Niger's military junta is accelerating a dramatic geopolitical realignment, severing long-standing security ties with the West and embracing a new partnership with Russia. This strategic pivot was starkly illustrated by the recent departure of the last contingent of U.S. troops, marking the end of a critical American counter-terrorism presence in the volatile Sahel region. As Russian military personnel and equipment arrive in Niamey, the capital, the move signals a fundamental reshaping of regional security dynamics, with profound implications for Canada's diplomatic, humanitarian, and economic interests in West Africa.

The July 2023 coup, which overthrew the democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum, was met with international condemnation, including from Ottawa. However, sanctions and diplomatic pressure from Western nations and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) failed to reverse the takeover. Instead, the junta, led by General Abdourahamane Tiani, has consolidated its power by tapping into anti-French colonial sentiment and seeking security assistance from Moscow. Niger has followed the playbook of its neighbours, Mali and Burkina Faso, which also experienced recent coups and subsequently expelled French forces in favour of Russian support, primarily from the Wagner Group mercenary force, now rebranded as the Africa Corps.

Together, the three nations have formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), a mutual defence pact that effectively withdraws them from the Western-backed G5 Sahel counter-terrorism framework. The departure of over 1,000 U.S. military personnel, who operated crucial drone bases for surveillance and intelligence gathering against jihadist groups affiliated with al-Qaeda and ISIS, creates a significant security vacuum. Western officials fear this void will be exploited by extremists, leading to an escalation of violence that could spill over into coastal West African states like Ghana, Togo, and Benin.

Implications for Canada's Engagement in the Sahel

For Canada, the developments in Niger represent a multifaceted challenge. For decades, Ottawa has been a significant partner in the region, investing hundreds of millions of dollars in development and humanitarian assistance. Global Affairs Canada's programs in Niger have focused on health, education, food security, and supporting democratic governance—all of which are now under threat.

The junta's anti-Western posture and the deteriorating security situation make it increasingly difficult and dangerous for Canadian-funded NGOs and aid workers to operate. The suspension of some development aid by Canada and its allies following the coup has been a necessary response to the unconstitutional change in government, but it also risks harming the civilian population, which is already facing extreme poverty and the effects of climate change.

Economically, while direct Canadian investment in Niger is modest, the regional instability poses a significant risk to Canadian mining companies operating across West Africa. The Sahel and its surrounding areas are rich in gold and other minerals, attracting major Canadian firms. For example, Barrick Gold and IAMGOLD have substantial operations in neighbouring Mali and Burkina Faso, countries now allied with Niger's junta. The unpredictable political landscape, coupled with the potential for expanding conflict, threatens supply chains, personnel safety, and long-term investments. The challenges facing Canadian mining and humanitarian efforts in unstable African nations are not unique to the Sahel, as seen in the escalating conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo, highlighting a continent-wide trend of increasing operational risk.

A Broader Geopolitical Contest

Niger's pivot to Russia is a microcosm of a larger strategic competition unfolding across Africa, where Russia and China are challenging the influence of traditional Western partners. Moscow offers security assistance with fewer conditions related to human rights or democracy, an appealing proposition for autocratic regimes. This expanding Russian footprint presents a direct challenge to the international order that Canada seeks to uphold.

This strategic competition with Russia is not confined to Africa. In the high north, for instance, Moscow's military expansion in the Arctic also presents a direct challenge to Canadian sovereignty and security interests. The events in the Sahel demonstrate how this rivalry is playing out globally, forcing Canada and its allies to adapt to a world where their influence is no longer guaranteed.

In response to the coup, Canada has supported ECOWAS-led mediation efforts and has consistently called for the release of President Bazoum and a swift return to constitutional order. However, with the junta now firmly entrenched and backed by a global power, the options for Western democracies are limited. The focus for Canada may need to shift from reversing the coup to mitigating its consequences: managing the humanitarian fallout, working with remaining regional partners to contain the spread of extremism, and reassessing how to protect its interests in a region that has decisively turned away from the West.