Ethiopia's Amhara Conflict Deepens, Sparking Humanitarian Crisis and Concern in Canada

A Hidden War's Devastating Toll

In Ethiopia's Amhara region, a conflict that has been simmering for over a year has erupted into a full-blown crisis, creating devastating humanitarian consequences away from the international spotlight. Fighting between the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) and the Amhara popular militia, known as Fano, has intensified, leading to thousands of deaths, mass displacement, and credible reports of severe human rights violations. The federal government, led by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, has imposed a state of emergency, effectively cutting off the region from the outside world with internet shutdowns and restricted access for journalists and aid organizations, making it difficult to ascertain the full scale of the catastrophe.

The conflict's roots are complex, stemming from the aftermath of the brutal two-year war in the neighbouring Tigray region. During that war, Amhara regional forces and the Fano militia were crucial allies of the federal government against the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). However, the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement that ended the Tigray war was viewed by many in Amhara as a betrayal. They felt their security concerns, particularly regarding disputed territories like Western Tigray (Welkait), were ignored in the deal. Tensions boiled over in April 2023 when Prime Minister Abiy ordered the dissolution of all regional special forces and their integration into the federal army or police, a move perceived by Amhara nationalists as a deliberate attempt to weaken their region's autonomy and leave it vulnerable.

Humanitarian Catastrophe Unfolds

The resulting violence has been catastrophic for civilians caught in the crossfire. Human rights organizations, including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, have documented extrajudicial killings, arbitrary detentions, and indiscriminate shelling of civilian areas by government forces. Drones have reportedly been used extensively by the ENDF, causing significant civilian casualties in towns and rural communities. In response, Fano militias have engaged in ambushes and guerrilla warfare, further destabilizing the region.

Access for humanitarian aid is severely constrained, exacerbating an already dire situation. The United Nations has warned of rising food insecurity and a collapsing healthcare system. Hospitals lack basic medical supplies to treat the wounded, and essential services have been disrupted. Millions are in need of assistance, but the ongoing fighting and government-imposed restrictions prevent aid from reaching them. This blockade echoes the tactics used during the Tigray war, which led to famine-like conditions for hundreds of thousands.

The Canadian Connection: Diaspora and Diplomacy

The crisis in Amhara resonates deeply within Canada, home to a large and diverse Ethiopian diaspora. Communities across the country, from Toronto to Calgary, are watching in horror as the conflict affects their families back home. The internet blackouts mean many have been unable to contact loved ones for months, living with constant anxiety and fear. The conflict has also fueled political divisions within the diaspora, reflecting the complex ethnic and political fault lines of Ethiopia itself. Community leaders and activists have been urging the Canadian government to take a stronger stance, calling for sanctions, increased humanitarian aid, and more forceful diplomacy to end the violence.

Ottawa's response has been one of cautious condemnation and calls for dialogue. Global Affairs Canada has issued statements expressing deep concern over the reported human rights abuses and urging all parties to protect civilians and allow unhindered humanitarian access. Canada was a significant contributor of humanitarian aid during the Tigray war and continues to fund relief efforts in Ethiopia. However, critics argue that statements alone are insufficient. They are pushing for Canada to use its diplomatic leverage, alongside allies like the United States and the European Union, to pressure the Abiy government into seeking a peaceful resolution.

Navigating this diplomatic challenge is complex. Canada must balance its condemnation of human rights abuses with the need to maintain a relationship with a key regional power. This delicate balancing act is a recurring theme in Canadian foreign policy, evident in how Ottawa is also grappling with how to respond after Iran elected a new moderate president, posing a different kind of diplomatic test for Canada.

Threats to Regional Stability

The instability in Amhara poses a significant threat not just to Ethiopia's fragile federal structure but to the entire Horn of Africa. Ethiopia, the second-most populous country in Africa, is an anchor state in a volatile region. A protracted conflict in Amhara could have spillover effects, further straining relations with neighbouring countries. For instance, the conflict complicates an already tense border dispute with Sudan over the fertile al-Fashaga triangle, an area where Amhara farmers have historically clashed with Sudanese forces. The ongoing violence risks creating another massive refugee crisis in a region already struggling to cope with multiple conflicts, including the one detailed in the report on how Sudan's escalating civil war puts Canadian aid and diplomatic efforts to the test.

The international community's attention has been fragmented, focused on crises in Ukraine, Gaza, and Sudan. However, ignoring the escalating war in Amhara risks allowing another large-scale humanitarian disaster to unfold. Diplomatic efforts, led by the African Union and supported by Western partners like Canada, are crucial to push for a ceasefire, establish an inclusive political dialogue that addresses the grievances of the Amhara people, and ensure accountability for the atrocities being committed. Without urgent and concerted international action, Ethiopia risks sliding deeper into a cycle of violence that could tear the country apart.