France's Snap Election Poses Major Risks for Canadian Trade and Security

A high-stakes political gamble by French President Emmanuel Macron has thrown France into turmoil and sent ripples of uncertainty across Europe and beyond, with significant implications for Canada. After his centrist alliance was trounced by Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) in the European Parliament elections in early June, Macron made the stunning decision to dissolve the National Assembly and call a snap legislative election. Now, as France heads into the decisive second round of voting, the prospect of a far-right party controlling the government for the first time in modern French history is very real, posing direct risks to Canadian trade, security, and diplomatic interests.

The election pits three main blocs against each other: Macron's centrist Ensemble (Together) coalition, the newly formed left-wing New Popular Front (NFP), and the National Rally, led by the 28-year-old Jordan Bardella. After the first round of voting, the RN emerged with a commanding lead, securing over 33% of the vote. This result positions the party to potentially win an absolute majority in the 577-seat National Assembly, which would force Macron to appoint Bardella as his prime minister. Such a scenario, known as “cohabitation,” would create a deeply divided government, with the president and prime minister from opposing and ideologically hostile parties.

The CETA Trade Deal in the Crosshairs

For Canada, the most immediate and tangible risk lies in the future of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA). This landmark trade deal between Canada and the European Union, signed in 2016, has been provisionally in force since 2017, eliminating tariffs on 98% of goods. However, it still requires ratification by the national parliaments of all 27 EU member states to take full effect, particularly its controversial investment protection provisions. France’s Senate rejected the deal earlier this year, and a vote in the National Assembly was shelved by Macron’s government to avoid a defeat.

The National Rally has been a vocal opponent of CETA, echoing protectionist sentiments among French farmers who fear competition from Canadian agricultural imports, particularly beef and pork. The party frames CETA and other free-trade agreements as threats to French sovereignty, jobs, and agricultural standards. Should the RN form a government, it is almost certain they would block France's final ratification of the deal. While this would not immediately nullify the existing provisional application, it would create profound uncertainty for Canadian businesses and could embolden other CETA-skeptical governments in the EU to follow suit, potentially leading to the unravelling of the agreement over time. This would be a major blow to the Trudeau government, which has championed CETA as a cornerstone of its trade diversification strategy away from the United States.

Strains on the NATO Alliance

Beyond trade, a National Rally government would represent a significant challenge to the unity of the NATO alliance. While Marine Le Pen has backed away from her previous calls for France to leave NATO’s integrated military command, her party remains deeply skeptical of the alliance and has advocated for a more independent French foreign policy. The RN has been critical of the extent of Western support for Ukraine and has historic ties to Russia, raising concerns in Brussels and Washington about its reliability as an ally.

A government in Paris that is lukewarm on its NATO commitments would weaken the alliance from within at a critical moment. This would create new fractures in the transatlantic relationship and could undermine collective efforts to counter Russian aggression. For Ottawa, this is a serious concern. As Canada is already facing mounting pressure on its defence spending commitments, a less engaged France would increase the burden on other allies and complicate strategic decision-making. The RN's ambiguous stance on Kyiv also contrasts sharply with the G7 consensus, where countries like Canada have pledged ongoing support at international summits aimed at securing a just peace for Ukraine.

Diplomatic and Cultural Ties at Risk

The relationship between Canada and France is one of the oldest and deepest in Canadian foreign policy, anchored by linguistic ties and a shared history, particularly with Quebec. A government led by the nationalist, anti-immigration National Rally would fundamentally alter the tone of this relationship. The RN's ideology is at odds with the Canadian government's official policy of multiculturalism and its progressive stance on many social issues. While an RN government might find some common ground with Quebec on issues of secularism and the protection of the French language, its broader nationalist agenda could create diplomatic friction.

Cooperation on key international files, from climate change to global development and human rights, could become more difficult. Macron has been a key ally for Canada on the world stage, sharing a similar multilateralist worldview. A Prime Minister Bardella would likely pursue an “France first” agenda, prioritizing perceived national interests over international cooperation, thereby diminishing a key Canadian partnership within the G7, G20, and La Francophonie.

As the final vote approaches, officials in Ottawa, like their counterparts in capitals across the Western world, are watching with apprehension. The outcome of Macron's electoral gamble will not only determine the future of France but will also have a profound impact on the stability of the European Union, the strength of the NATO alliance, and the landscape of international trade, directly affecting Canada's economic and strategic interests.